EUROCONTROL Forecasts 16 Million Flights Per Year by 2050

EUROCONTROL predicts that around 16 million flights per year will be operated by 2050 via its aviation outlook. 

This, however, has not come without challenges in the future that the aviation industry has to deal with.

It is also why EUROCONTROL has instigated a range of 13.2-19.6 million flights per year by that period, but the damage caused by COVID-19 and the Ukraine Crisis will exacerbate things going forward.

With the Ukraine Crisis in mind, it is key to note that this report was prepared before the start of the invasion, which indicates that it isn't as clear how this crisis will affect things going forward.

The 16 million flights per year by 2050 will represent a growth rate of 1.2% every year, which is 44% up on 2019 numbers, which is promising.

EUROCONTROL believes that the industry can be net-zero by 2050 by cutting 279 million tonnes worth of CO2 using the following methods:

• 17% through more efficient than conventional aircraft.
• 2% through electric & hydrogen-powered aircraft.
• 8% through better ATM and airline operations.
• 41% through the use of Sustainable Aviation Fuel.
• 32% through other measures.

The 16 million-figure has been established through what EUROCONTROL deems as "the base scenario", with 19.6 million being the high scenario and 13.2 million being the low scenario.

Global air traffic statistics for April 9-16 this year are +25.53% higher than it was in the same period last year. 

83,851 movements are due to commence over the course of this week. This figure, however, is still lower than 2019's big figure of 110,034 movements but is definitely heading in the right direction. 

What EUROCONTROL is saying is definitely ambitious, as this depends on a lot of investment within the sector from both public and private entities. 

It will be interesting to see how the next few years will pan out, especially as we recover from COVID-19 and subsequently the Ukraine Crisis.